My survey question asked about whether future cities would grow or shrink. While a preponderance of respondents think cities will become larger, they offered interesting insights about possible harms and, somewhat less, benefits the megacities could have.
A lot of the commentary about growing cities emphasizes the challenges for infrastructure improvements, a greener environment and a smooth relationship with rural societies.
The Cities comments are grouped into three parts: Demographic Driven, New Shapes of Cities, Work-Life Balance.
Driven by Demography and Geography
The motivations for the future of cities are as important as the details. The age-old reasons are there: looking for a better economic life or youth drawn to the bright lights action. A newer cause is escaping the ravages of climate change on the rural environment.
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In the U.S.: High cost coastal cities will plateau or shrink in population from a combination of affordability & climate change related concerns. Note: State Farm is no longer issuing new homeowner’s insurance policies in California due to heavy losses from wildfire related claims. That said, inland cities will flourish with net migration from the coasts as families seek affordable housing and remote or distributed working and online education platforms bring jobs previously clustered in the big financial, tech & media hubs to what were previously considered tier 2 or tier 3 cities. These new inland hubs will also draw in talent from surrounding areas to create growing suburbs around these growing city hubs.
In Western Europe: Demographic decline will impact rural areas as the youth continue to flee the countryside to work in the urban capitals and agricultural activity is increasingly undertaken by agribusinesses leveraging autonomous robotic equipment.
In Japan: Megalopolises like Tokyo & Osaka will remain stable as they suck in the dwindling population from other areas of the country leading to rewilding efforts in remote prefectures as critical masses needed to justify maintaining services dwindle. United StatesOverall cities are going to grow in Africa and Asia, however if WFH/hybrid working becomes the prevalent approach in Europe/North America then I think people will increasingly depart cities. Look at the states in the US that are growing- Texas Florida Wyoming and Colorado- there is increased professional flight to these states for a better quality of life. United Kingdom
Urban areas are expected to grow by 2043 due to population growth and economic opportunities. However, factors like technology, climate change, potential pandemics, and evolving urban planning could also lead to redistribution, transformation, or even contraction of some cities. Therefore, it’s likely we’ll see a mix of growth, decline, and significant change in urban landscapes. South Africa
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Young people will gather more and more in cities living in small vertical spaces. Older people can move to calmer and closer to nature spaces. Brazil
Cities will grow due to work and career goals of the growing youthful population. Nigeria
The flight to cities at least in Asia will grow as millennials flock for employment. India
I do believe that costs and desires by upcoming generations to put satisfaction ahead of money will drive a change in city life. United Kingdom
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The growth of cities will be fueled by the migration of skilled workers to developed economies such as Canada, US, United Kingdom, Germany, Etc. Nigeria
Urbanization will be the way as agricultural dependence decreases. India
India is unlikely to eliminate poverty in the rural areas. As a consequence, migration from rural to urban will continue. India
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Cities will grow for next 20 years as still many nations are far behind in urban growth also many semi urban area will evolve as urban/cities. India
I am of the opinion that cities will grow as a result of population increase. Nigeria is a case study. Nigeria
The lower availability or absence of key services outside cities and urban areas will not be addressed by 2043 and this will outweigh the many risks of city living. Australia
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The climate changes should have a significant impact for a lot of people in the world who will see their areas in danger (coasts,…) forcing them to move to cities. France
Digitalization and new sustainable transport will allow people to work in less stressful places than cities. On the other hand we will see migration due to climate changes. Difficult to know, but it probably will make cities to grow. Sweden
The ability for governments to provide adequate infrastructure (transport, water, etc.) to geographically dispersed areas may become harder and harder. Climate change will force people to become more concentrated in areas that are less impacted. Australia
Refugees from climate disaster will flood the cities. Belgium
New Shapes of Cities
Cities in our future could evolve to more diverse community groupings, such as a collection of “city-villages”, important for physical and mental health reasons. A more pessimistic view is that cities will have the dense shape of megalopolises.
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More and the cities will have service clusters that create the impression of smaller cities and communities. Brazil
I believe cities will expand, creating smaller, opener communities in bigger communities. Netherlands
Cities may evolve into urban villages, with more community, let’s hope. United Kingdom
We are a growth-based society and due to historic planning issues city density will increase. Density will also be dependent on the availability or lack of public transport options. While technology aspects will mean we will have more distributed work options, there will still be a driver to have location-based hubs to help support small businesses that support work locations. Australia
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I believe the concept of self-sustaining communities is growing and COVID lockdowns proved utility of it. I see this only increasing in demand in my region at least. Canada
Remote work and benefits of cities will diminish. Health is playing a part as well with the move to distance between others. More outbreaks as well may come. Canada
With more people moving to hubs like London and Bangalore with more opportunities, cities will grow. The trend during Pandemic and remote working I feel was only an aberration. United Kingdom
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The boundaries between urban areas will continue to grow and merge into “metroplexes”. United States
Cities are growing and growing, and will absorb their surroundings. Just like what happened the previous centuries. Netherlands
Opportunities will continue to be higher in cities. Cities will become megapolises especially in countries like India and China. India
The urbanization will continue which leads to higher efficiency and productivity. The younger generations are big fans of mega city which offers diversified experiences and opportunities. China
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I believe there will be little green space between cities and urban areas and the next city and urban area, it will just be a wide expanse of buildings melding into the next. United Kingdom
I think we might see a blurring of population centers leading to extended “cities”. United States
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A city locked by natural boundaries (water, mountains, etc.) or human (neighboring cities, laws, regulations) can only grow upwards. It will be expensive. A city with no boundaries can grow horizontally easily and cheaply. Canada
Finding Life-Work Balance
The increased awareness that a good life-work balance is needed could be a hindrance to the growth of cities. And when cities do grow, it will be important that they are more adapted to better personal lives of the inhabitants.
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The large urban centers of today will see a decline as villages modernize and have more amenities that today are not available there. The Tier 2, 3 and 4 cities and towns will also become more modern and attract people who want to lead less hectic lives. India
With digitization and spread of gig economy, and awareness of the higher purpose of life, hopefully people will choose to live in more nature-based environments and not in cities and urban environments. India
Cities may “grow” in population, the density being attractive to easily access services, direct interpersonal social interactions, but will be “retooled” – no automobiles on streets, just mass trans and more pedestrian, bike transit, buildings and homes transitioned to renewables, new green and garden spaces instead of parking garages, coastal cities will re-architect their coastal perimeters to mitigate sea rise, and more frequent severe weather events. The air quality in cities will have improved as a transition to renewable sources of energy for buildings and transit will have been made. Cities will remain attractive as locations of diverse social and cultural experiences, more direct, interpersonal experiences of learning, a place to provide services. Behemoth commercial real estate buildings formerly used to house office workers will be retooled for living and live/work. United States
If there’s a big divide between the haves and have nots it is likely that the have nots will have to centralize in cities to access basic services the government will have to provide. The haves will go live wherever they want. United States
They will grow but slower than the pace patterns have previously shown. Urban areas are no longer than ball ‘n’ chain to go to work. Remote working has put an end to this old-fashioned slavery ideal. United Kingdom
I think cities will grow in number, with the fastest growth rates between 200,000 and 500,000. Larger cities probably won’t grow as fast and may in fact hit peaks where the value of extremely large cities (2,000,000+) diminish greatly. People will seek a balance between, on the one hand connectedness and convenience, and on the other crowds and strained infrastructures. With increased digital abilities, the physical needs to be present for everything will continue to shift to allowing more and richer virtual experiences. There will be a sweet spot between having most of what you need and want (including peace and quiet) within physical reach in a moderately sized city, with access to everything else in an instant digitally. United States
I think the growth in urbanization will continue although maybe accelerate slower with better connectivity and remote opportunities available to rural dwellers. Australia
With rising costs and the possibility of remote work. We can start seeing companies exploring moving staff away from cities and staff choosing smaller locations. Singapore
