Quantifying the human impact on climate change
Basically what we’re doing is we’re trying to understand to what extent is the activities of humans influencing our climate. So basically trying to understand what have we done as humans over the years that has actually changed our climate. And one way of looking at that is how activities of humans are sort of modifying the weather that we experience, the climate that we experience. And most importantly in terms of the extremes or looking at how weather really affect us in a very extreme way, in a very adverse way, in a way that it creates impacts that are adverse or harmful to humans. It could be humans or it also could be just the natural system. It could be our crops, it could be our plants. So it’s the fauna and the flora, right? It’s everything in the climate system that is being affected.
Greenhouse gases modify rainfall
So basically quantifying and trying to understand to what extent activities of human beings have contributed to how our climate has changed and how that climate is impacting us.
The work that you just mentioned is the work that I did three years ago and I was trying to understand how rainfall has been changing in parts of East Africa and Kenya. And I was trying to understand that kind of rainfall in that particular season of March, April, May, which was really causing extreme flooding, extreme rainfall resulting in flooding that was affecting especially a lot of agricultural systems. And so in that case, I just wanted to understand to what extent is actually climate change has modified that kind of rainfall, which was associated with that impact. And so with that, you are trying to just quantify how much emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere actually modifying the rainfall in parts of the world. And these specifically was looking at East Africa to understand how has that modification happened for that particular region.
Citizen science increases awareness and uses indigenous knowledge
I’m interested in citizen science involving everyday people in being able to measure things in different parts of the world. Have you done any work in that area?
Yeah, I’ve been working a lot with communities across East Africa to understand how they use their own local knowledge, right? The indigenous knowledge. How do they conserve the environment? How do they understand the environment, because that’s very important? You want the science to complement with sort of the Indigenous of the local knowledge so that you’re enriching, having diverse views or also enriching those knowledge systems so that it can be able to support adaptation and resilience building.
So what I’ve doing as well in terms of citizen science is involving communities, for example, and observing the environment, trying to work with them to understand what are the indicators of changes in the environment. Also, some of the communities that I’ve worked with is they engaged in looking at or observing, so they have their own, so they are like voluntary observers. So they observe the weather. They have their own instruments where they measure, say rainfall or temperature for their region. And that is how basically they get to understand their own environment. So they get to understand what are the changes in temperature and rainfall in their region. And at the same time just really having that sort of general knowledge of their surrounding. So that is more of having citizens being very actively participating in science and being part of the wider conversation in terms of what’s happening. And also for them to really understand why it’s important to conserve the environment or be involved, building resilience amid the changes in the climate.
Attribution science provides new and essential data
So basically attribution science is what I started initially by saying we are looking at the contribution of climate change. So we are quantifying the extent to which climate change is modifying sort of the extremes. And that is the field of attribution science. Some people would consider it a little bit new, but I don’t think it’s really new now. It’s been here for 25 years now. So there’s a lot of technological and methodological advancement in how we have been quantifying the role of anthropogenic climate and sort of the human influence on the climate.
Causation is needed for climate litigation
The kind of work that we do would be very useful, very handy in supporting climate cases. That’s very true, because what is very central to climate litigation is actually evidence on causation. So you want to stand before a court and say, “This is the evidence that says this is linked to this.” So basically you want to understand the particular activity that the defendant has done is linked to what the plaintiffs have and what the case has been brought forward is on. So basically you are saying, for example, for oil majors, you are saying that for example, for Total you are saying that the emission of greenhouse gases that have upped and due to your activities involved in that industry is actually leading to the particular impacts that vulnerable people are facing in this part of the world.
Cross-jurisdictional learning and exchanges
I am also one of the co-chairs for a climate research forum, which is a platform that supports in the disciplinary or in cross-jurisdictional learning and exchanges. So lawyers and scientists sitting together to say, “What exactly is this field about? What is climate education? What do we need to know? What kind of evidence do we need?” And it’s about also lawyers learning, sorry, it’s about climate scientists learning from lawyers to understand what kind of a case would you require from scientists. And scientists as well saying, “This is the best and the latest science that is available and this is how it can support cases.”
Still more work for legal practice and climate science to come together
We haven’t had a successful case per se. So we’ve had cases in court and it’s largely really due to the fact that the legal system is not ready for such cases. It’s never been ready for such cases. It wasn’t built for such cases. So legal practice and science are very two different, I’ve come to realize that these are very two different fields and they look at things very differently. Having legal concepts merging to scientific concepts, it’s not just a straightforward line. There’s a lot of in-betweens there. And that is what’s sort of the gaps that you’re trying to bridge. So basically me explaining my attribution findings to a lawyer is not just straightforward. The lawyer can just stand before a court and explain that in a way that it’s very convincing and in a way that it can prove that it’s epistemological correct or the methodologically sound. We still need to do some work in terms of these two fields coming together.
The role of IPCC, a UN group
This is really the mandated authority, the global authority to provide the best available science. Through the work of this body that we’ve learned, the world has got to understand a lot about what’s happening to our planet and what changes have been occurring to our planet and what are the impacts and trying to discuss what are the options that are available to adapt to these changes. And also to try to mitigate some of the courses that are causing these changes. So I think IPCC is a very fundamental, very crucial body that has really provided the science. It has furthered the discussion. It’s also supporting the negotiations of the United Nations framework Convention on climate change, which is sort of the negotiating body that tries to bring parties or countries together to agree on ways of providing solutions for a better planet.
Changes have happened, adaptation is necessary
We’re in a world that things have changed. We are where we are. We need to adapt to these changes. We’re in this world now, but how do we want to be resilient to these changes so that we can still provide for our society, still produce food, still move from one place to another, but in a way that we adapting to the changes that are happening.
Acting now for future generations
We doing things, because it’s beyond us, right? I mean, it’s easy to say that I’m 50 years old, I might be in the next 50 years or so, I’m unlikely to be here. But I don’t think that that’s fair for your generation, I mean for your kids and your grandkids. So it’s really about tomorrow and trying to leave a legacy and a better world for generations to come.
Climate denialism is blind to real losses of lives and homes
I think the final important comment that I wanted to make is the rise of climate denialism as well. There is a lot of organizations that are trying to fabricate doubt, say in the science so that they can preserve their activities or they can actually delay decision-making at all costs for their benefit. And it could be governments, it could be organizations really for selfish interest. But I think the most important thing that I wanted to say is that as much as all that can happen, it’s really important for people to understand that that is really, really affecting the lives of people in other parts of the world. I mean, it’s easy for someone who lives in a place, in a world where things are fine, maybe their environment is good, maybe their surrounding is good, maybe they don’t see those impacts every single day. But I can tell them as a scientist and as someone from Africa and I visit some of these vulnerable communities, I see the impacts of those changes in the climate system affecting these people.
It’s really a problem, because it’s affecting people that are not part of the cause of the problem or not part of the problem. And also for people that don’t have so much resources at their disposal to be able to respond to these effects or to be able to cushion themselves again as these adverse impacts. So you find that over time they are experiencing losses and damages to their societies, to their cultural heritage, to their social cohesion, for example. Some people have to migrate, which is very involuntary in many cases. They lose their homes. People can be lost in the idea that it’s always about money that brings happiness. But to some people, it’s really about their home. It’s about their culture, it’s about their sense of belonging that is really important.
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